Interactive Flash imagemap about the "Arab Spring"

Click on the picture to open!

Virus for peace

It seemed to be a regular nightshift at the Natanz and Fordo nuclear facilities in Iran. Scientists were working on their computers, technicians were checking if everything goes well in order to raise the Islamic Republic into the priviliged group of nations having nuclear weapons power.
In the middle of the night the computers suddenly started playing "Thunderstruck" from AC/DC, then the automation network, an important element of the nuclear sites were shut down, causing a delay in the progress. Just as Stuxnet 2 years ago, this cyber attack was probably made and organised from Israel in order to interrupt Iran's nuclear aspirations.

For Israel (and for most of the World) there is a bad and a worse scenario. The bad one is a war between the Jewish state and Iran, the worse is a nuclear Iran. The first one endangers the security of Israel, the second one endangers its very existence. And both can lead to an all-out Middle-Eastern war.

An Israeli attack against the dicatorship's nuclear facilities wouldn't be something new to the Israeli Air Force. They did it succesfully in Iraq in 1981, and in Syria in 2007. Israel has the most developed air force in the region, which can easily carry out a precise attack against a target without endangering civilian areas just as it happened in the above mentioned events. But now, there are a few problems with that. Seems like the Persians have more brain than the Arabs (no offense). Iraq and Syria have tried to build their nuclear plants at one place, making it easily and quickly destroyable. Iran has split it to several sites throughout the huge country. One quick action would not be enough this time. Another problem is the Irani long-range missiles, which can hit Israel. Also, Ahmadinejad's answer would not be limited on military facilities, but might target residential areas. And Israel is a small country, whith most of its population residing in the tiny central coastal area around Tel-Aviv.
This last fact makes the second option, a nuclear Iran lethal to the Jewish state, and to millions of its inhabitants. Jerusalem has no other choice, than preventing Teheran from having atomic bombs no matter how high the cost will be.

The good news is: war might not be the only option. Sending viruses into the computer systems of nuclear sites as well as to military installations cause no civilian deaths, doesn't destroy residential buildings, schools or hospitals. It seems to be the most humanistic option.
The last few worms which were probably sent by Israel could only delay the progress of achieving the technology of the atomic bomb, but could not completely stop it. Hopefully these ones were only the test for the real one, which will ultimately take the whole system down. I really hope it is possible, and a war will be avoidable.

Technology can always be used for good and bad causes. Nuclear power provides us with light and heating, but also enables us to kill more people in less time than ever. Helicopters help us to save lives by taking sick people to the hospitals quickly, as-well-as to bomb buidlings in war situations. Even a piece of paper can be used for a love letter or racistic incitement. Every invention gives us the opportunity to use it for peaceful or hostile purposes.

Computer viruses and hacking used to be considered as having only bad sides. Now they might have the chance to destroy Iran's atomic aspirations and prevent a war, saving the lives of many Jews, Muslims and Christians.

Syria, Putin and the Olympic Games

Is the Cold War back?

As reports about killing of thousands of civilians in Syira are uncovered every day, many ask the question: "If the NATO had the guts to succesfully intervene in Lybia, why do they let Assad massmurdering his people?" One suggested answer is: "It is not clear who would be the successor". The problem with this answer is: in Lybia it wasn't any clearer either.

Let's look back in history just one Olympic games earlier. Four years ago, when the World was watching the competing teams in Beijing, Russia attacked Georgia with the ridiculous excuse of protecting a tiny province in the Caucasian country, called South Osetia. I actually never liked the explanation, that Russia did this because of the oil- and gas-pipelines running across Georgia. Moscow has enough means to control the transport of oil and gas from Central Asia to Europe without any aggression. What more important is, that Georgia is a strong ally of the US. It is an American stronghold in the vicinity of Russian ones. A reverse Serbia, which is a Russian ally in the vicinity of NATO-members. During the Yugoslavian wars, America bombed Serbian entities, while the paralyzed Russia couldn't help his friend. Years later, as oil-prices dramatically rose, a richer and more important Moscow could take revenge: "You bombed our little Serbian friends, now we will bomb your little Georgian ones." And most recently Moscow is telling to Washington: "Now, you will not replace our dear friend, Assad. From now on, without the consent of the Kreml, such moves will be inpossible. We're back. America is not the only superpower anymore."

Occupy your mind!

Occupy your mind!

It is always funny when people with iPhones in their hands are inciting against corporations, or when voters of the most populist parties are blaming politics for all the problems.
People occupy Wall Street to protest against banks and corporations. Other people blame immigrants for unemployment. The old-fashioned idea of blaming Jews is living its renessaince in some European countries. Blaming, blaming, blaming...the easiest reaction when we are facing difficulties. In fact, it is the most childish and most destructive one as well. It keeps up the belief in our perfectness: "WE did everything well, it was all THEIR fault, therefore we don't need to improve ourselves of course."

Yes, corporations can be unfair, banks can be greedy, politicians are corrupt. But they are not the economy. Not only them. The economy is us too: the doctor, the webdesigner, the haircutter, the student or the busdriver...even the unemployed. All of us. And the way we work, the way we spend our money, the way we learn, the way we educate our children, and the way we vote eventually affects the future of the ecomony and society. It all depends on the individuals. We all are responsible for what is going on in the World. If we occupy Wall Street or protest against the IMF, we will not get out of any problems. In fact, we will only sink deeper into them. By blaming banks, corporations and international organisations, we are denying our responsibility and strengthening the slave-mentality in ourselves.
Let's blame ourselves, and change our behaviour! Let's buy what we need and not what has a cool advertisement! let's train ourselves and let's learn from those who do better! If we were not anti-capitalist when we bought our new car, we shouldn't be one when we have to pay back the loan on it. If we voted for politicians who distribute more money, than the state's income, we shouldn't blame them when the state is collapsing under its astronomical debts! It was OUR fault! The banks don't force us to spend, they just finance it. The governments would never do anything against the taste of their voters, so we should change our taste, and they will change their policy immediately.
Let's learn microeconomics to understand how we should deal with our money; and macroeconomics in order to know how to judge the government. Let's train ourselves and become better in our professions.
Instead of occupying Wall Street, we should occupy our own minds and when many people will do it, the World will deffinitely change.

About the changes

In the Middle East, often the most unexpected happen. Last month, old, well-established regimes fell. Fall of these dictators is not the most unexpected story, but the way they fell, was something, which was never predicted by any Western analysts (at least, I never read or heard such). The power of Tunisia's Ben Ali, and Egypt's Mubarak were not terminated by military intervention (like it happened in Iraq in 2003), nor by murder (like Mubarak's predecessor, Anwar Sadat), neither by a civil war or a coup, or any other known ways in the Middle East. They had to leave their office as a result of a way of angry protests, mostly by the masses of the young, unemployed population.

Watching, and reading the coverages, i didn't notice any burning American or Israeli flags, didn't see masked, armed terrorist-type marching. They were quite similar to the big protests in Europe: some objects caught fire, but the people behaved mostly peaceful (some cases, like beating and molesting Western journalists could make us worry though, but let's be optimistic at this point). The events were spread through internet social networks, such as Facebook, or Twitter. These sudden revolutions were carried out by a society of young Arabs, who use the internet, and see there the World outside, while they are fed up with their situation. Maybe the new generation of Arabs represents something, which has never existed before in these countries (or if it has, it had to hide): the Civil Society.
It is clear, that even if this society will not be ruling these countries, it will definitely be an important segment, which the new rulers (whomever they will be) will have to listen to.
Now, the question is: what do they (this new society) want? How do they think about politics? We don't know this yet. They will not even necessary be united in any idea, or goal. All we know is that they wanted change. But there is a chance now. Since they didn't show any signs of anti-Israel sentiment, hopefully they will not want to destroy the Jewish state, and they will not listen to the propaganda of hatred. They might say: "You, Jews can keep that twenty-something thousand square kilometers, we still have more than 10 million."

What I am saying, is of course not sure at this moment. The future is very uncertain now. We don't know, which direction these countries will turn after the fall of their previous dictators. I am afraid, even this new Arab society doesn't have any idea about it either. There is an unbelievable ideological vacuum there. But now, if we (Israel and the Westerners) communicate, and make our relations with the Arabs wisely, we can help them forming a new Middle East of peace, and mutual appreciation.

Líbiában is

Az utóbbi hetekben láthattunk komoly tüntetés-sorozatokat elsősorban Nyugat-barát arab rezsimek ellen. Láttuk a dühös, változást követelő tömegeket, és a három hónapja még elképzelhetetlen sikereiket. A legjelentősebbet Egyiptomban. Gondolhattuk, százezrek azért vonultak az utcára, mert elegük lett az arab nemzetet, és az Iszlámot eláruló vezetőkből, dühük egyik fő forrása a Nyugat érdekeit szolgáló külpolitika.
Ha így gondoltuk, csak nézzünk Líbiára, ahol a töntetők gyakorlatilag elfoglalták az ország második legnagyobb városát, és épp egy véres forradalom bontakozik ki az észak-afrikai országban. Vagyis a nem igazán Nyugat-barát Kadafi ellen ugyanúgy (sőt még inkább) lázadnak, mint a Washingtonnal jó kapcsolatokat ápoló arab vezetők ellen. A diktátor pedig cionista- és amerikai összeesküvésnek igyekszik beállítani a történéseket. A nép viszont úgy tűnik, ezt nem nagyon eszi meg. Őket, ahogyan a többi arab ország tüntetőit, valami más mozgatja, nem az arab sértettség, vagy elárultság-érzés.

Egyptomi mámor?

Mubarak lemondása a hatalomról a nemzetközi médiában pár nap alatt levette Egyiptomot a címoldalakról, ahol három héten keresztül folyamatosan szerepelt. Még mindig lehet olvasni/hallani/látni, de a világ most inkább Jemenre, Líbiára, Bahreinre, Iránra figyel, mint a Közel-keleten végigsöprő forradalomhullám aktuális állomásaira. Az elemzők azt tippelgetik, vajon sikeres lesz-e ezekben az országokban a tüntetés-sorozat, mennyire reagál erőszakosan a hatalom, kik a megmozdulások vezetői. Ezek mind fontos kérdések, de én azért nem venném le a szemem Egyiptomról sem. A legnagyobb arab országban változás történt, de milyen?
Azt tudjuk, hogy minek lett vége: egy Nyugat-barát külpolitikát folytató, szekuláris diktatúrának, amelynek nem sikerült az lakosság nagy részét kiemelni a szegénység, munkanélküliség, kilátástalanság csapdájából. Az ellenzék brutális elnyomásának, a mindent átszövő korrupciónak. Egy népszerűtlen uralomnak. Ennek vége, de mi jön most?
Elég messze vagyok Kairótól, így nem tudom megállapítani, milyen ott most a közhangulat, mennyire erufórikusak a változásnak örülő tömegek, mennyire gondolják azt, hogy most minden egycsapásra szép és jó lesz a Nílus partján. Őszintén remélem, hogy semennyire. Még azt sem lehet biztosan tudni, milyen lesz az új civil kormány, amely majd a választások után átveszi az ország irányitását a jelenleg kormányzó hadseregtől (még az is előfordulhat, hogy hosszútávra berendezkedik egy katonai diktatúra). Bár jelenleg az tűnik a legvalószinűbbnek, hogy egy mérsékelt külpolitikát folytató, az USA-val baráti viszonyt ápoló (az évi 1,3 milliárd dolláros amerikai támogatásról ők sem fognak lemondani), az Izraellel való békét fenntartó elnök kerül hatalomra, aki jó esetben enyhíteni fog a diktatúra brutalitásán, szélesíteni fogja a szabadság- és politikai jogokat. Valamennyire. Talán. De még ha az emberijogi fejleményekkel kapcsolatban optimisták is vagyunk (arab országról van szó!), még mindig ott van egy legalább ekkora probléma: a gazdaság, az életszínvonal helyzete.
Képes lesz-e az új hatalom ezt megoldani? Lehetséges-e egy túlnépesedő, szegény ország (a gyorsan növekvő lakosság nagy része a Nílus partjának egyre szűkülő nem sivatagos sávjában él) gazdasági problémáit érdemben enyhíteni? Létezik-e olyan, hogy egy muzulmán arab ország hatalmas ojalkincs nélkül gazdaságilag felemelkedik? Reménykedni lehet...
Akár a fent felvázolt Nyugat-barát irányt tartja Egyiptom, akár a politikai iszlám tör előre (mérsékeltebb, vagy szélsőségesebb formában), akár a nasszeri hagyományokon alapuló (pán)arab nacionalizmus tér vissza, a gazdasági bajokat egyik sem fogja tudni megoldani. Egyiptomnak (és a többi muszlim országnak) nem újabb ideológiai vezérekre van szüksége, hanem gazdasági csodadoktorra. A jelenleg megoldhatatlannak tűnő kilátástalanságot egy ideig talán feledtetni tudják újabb szólamokkal (legyen az demokrácia, iszlám, vagy bármi egyéb), de az emberek valódi problámáit sosem fogják megoldani.